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Glossary
Definition

Likelihood

The probability of the observed data under a particular choice of parameters, read as a function of those parameters.

The likelihood is L(θ)=P(Dθ)L(\theta) = P(D \mid \theta). The direction is the part people reverse: the data is fixed and known, and θ\theta is what varies. It answers "how probable is what I actually saw, if these parameter values were the truth?"

That is not the probability that the parameters are correct. P(Dθ)P(D \mid \theta) and P(θD)P(\theta \mid D) are different quantities, and a likelihood is not a probability distribution over θ\theta — it does not integrate to one over θ\theta, so you cannot read a confidence interval off it directly. Turning it into a genuine belief about the parameters requires a prior and Bayes' theorem.

Likelihoods are also only comparable between different parameters on the same data, never across different datasets. Maximum likelihood estimation picks whichever θ\theta makes this quantity largest, and because it is a product over observations, implementations always work with its logarithm.